Sunday, December 21, 2014

NBA 2K15 Small Forward Ratings (12/21/14)

As with their shooting guard brethren, small forwards can be difficult to evaluate statistically. Some may be ball-dominant scorers while others are defensive/shooting specialists.  At press-time there are only 22 SFs with 15.0 PER or higher, which means this is primarily a position for specialists.  As such, a two-way player is an especially valuable find.

SMALL FORWARD (94)
1-10
97 (-1) LeBron James (25.3 PER, 58 TS%, 31 USG%, 38 AST%)
95 (NC) Kevin Durant (28.3 PER, 65 TS%, 33 USG%, 27 AST%)
89 (NC) Carmelo Anthony (21.5 PER, 54 TS%, 31 USG%, 18 AST%)
86 (+1) Kawhi Leonard (19.3 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 13 AST%)
84 (+2) Rudy Gay (20.3 PER, 55 TS%, 27 USG%, 24 AST%)
82 (+3) Gordon Hayward (19.9 PER, 58 TS%, 25 USG%, 20 AST%)
81 (+5) Tobias Harris (18.5 PER, 56 TS%, 24 USG%, 10 AST%)
80 (-1) Paul Pierce (16.9 PER, 57 TS%, 21 USG%, 14 AST%)
80 (-2) Andre Iguodala (9.9 PER, 50 TS%, 13 USG%, 13 AST%)
79 (NC) Luol Deng (17.8 PER, 58 TS%, 20 USG%, 9 AST%)

LeBron James is playing below his usual elite standards.  His numbers suffered initially when he joined the Heat, and this may be another case of the King getting comfortable with his court (and I don't mean the hardwood).
Season Age Tm G PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% USG%
2003-04 19 CLE 79 18.3 .488 3.5 11.8 27.8 2.2 1.3 28.2
2004-05 ★ 20 CLE 80 25.7 .554 3.8 17.0 32.9 2.8 1.1 29.7
2005-06 ★ 21 CLE 79 28.1 .568 2.6 17.1 32.8 2.0 1.5 33.6
2006-07 ★ 22 CLE 78 24.5 .552 3.0 16.6 29.1 2.1 1.3 31.0
2007-08 ★ 23 CLE 75 29.1 .568 4.9 17.8 37.3 2.4 2.1 33.5
2008-09 ★ 24 CLE 81 31.7 .591 4.3 19.0 38.0 2.4 2.4 33.8
2009-10 ★ 25 CLE 76 31.1 .604 3.0 18.5 41.8 2.2 2.0 33.5
2010-11 ★ 26 MIA 79 27.3 .594 3.3 18.7 34.9 2.1 1.3 31.5
2011-12 ★ 27 MIA 62 30.7 .605 5.0 19.7 33.6 2.6 1.7 32.0
2012-13 ★ 28 MIA 76 31.6 .640 4.4 20.8 36.4 2.4 1.9 30.2
2013-14 ★ 29 MIA 77 29.3 .649 3.6 18.9 32.0 2.2 0.8 31.0
2014-15 30 CLE 24 25.3 .582 2.4 14.6 37.6 2.0 1.5 30.5
Career 866 27.7 .581 3.7 17.6 34.2 2.3 1.6 31.6

Statistically, this is the worst season LeBron has had since 2007 (when he lead an awful Cavaliers team to the NBA Finals).  His scoring efficiency is down, owing to a 13% dip in shooting percentage at the rim (an incredible but "human" 67%).  Turning 30 years of age in a few days, father time may be catching up to LeBron as it did Michael Jordan - his dunk rate has sliced in half from just a year ago.  LeBron is also posting worse rebound numbers, although playing next to Love/Varejao rather than Battier/Bosh contributes to that.

The key issue is his diminished scoring, as that is what has put him head and shoulders above the rest of the league for the better part of the decade..  If LeBron cannot re-capture his form then it stands to logic that Kevin Durant has finally eclipsed him as the league's premier small forward.

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Carmelo Anthony has seen his scoring efficiency suffer despite taking fewer shots in the triangle. While he might have a sterling reputation as an "elite" scorer, the truth of the matter is that ball-stopping Melo has never been as good offensively as what James Harden, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook are doing right now.

Andre Iguodala isn't even the 2nd best SF on his own team, so it goes without saying that he's not top ten in the NBA.  He's embroiled in the worst shooting season of his career, and it's not particularly close.

Luol Deng is quietly having a solid season in Miami.  In particular, Deng has never shot the ball this well from 3PT (38%) in his career.  His new-found shooting stroke makes him a premium two-way player.

It bears noting that only nine SFs crack 80 OVR (excluding the injured Paul George) while 23 PGs are rated 80 or higher, including the likes of Brandon Jennings and Reggie Jackson.  That ain't right.

POINT GUARDS
90+: Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook
85+: Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose, Mike Conley, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo
80+: Isaiah Thomas, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Darren Collison, Kemba Walker, Brandon Jennings, Reggie Jackson

SMALL FORWARDS
90+: LeBron James, Kevin Durant
85+: Carmelo Anthony, Kawhi Leonard
80+: Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward, Tobias Harris, Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala

Derrick Rose (87), Deron Williams (85), Rajon Rondo (85) are not having better seasons than players like Deng, Chandler Parsons, Draymond Green.... yet there is a huge gap in their ratings which is not indicative of their true value/ability. Hopefully 2K takes steps to correct this moving forward.

11-20
79 (NC) Chandler Parsons (17.7 PER, 56 TS%, 22 USG%, 11 AST%)
79 (+1) Jeff Green (16.3 PER, 57 TS%, 24 USG%, 7 AST%)
79 (+1) Tyreke Evans (15.7 PER, 48 TS%, 27 USG%, 27 AST%)
79 (+2) Draymond Green (15.3 PER, 56 TS%, 18 USG%, 14 AST%)
79 (-1) Josh Smith (14.2 PER, 42 TS%, 25 USG%, 26 AST%)
79 (+1) Tony Allen (13.1 PER, 52 TS%, 16 USG%, 9 AST%)
79 (+1) Trevor Ariza (11.6 PER, 51 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)
78 (NC) Gerald Green (16.5 PER, 55 TS%, 28 USG%, 10 AST%)
78 (+1) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (16.1 PER, 55 TS%, 17 USG%, 7 AST%)
78 (+2) Harrison Barnes (14.7 PER, 63 TS%, 14 USG%, 7 AST%)

Parsons is doing what he can to live up to his contract, which is more than can be said for #9 SF Andre Iguodala.

The basketball community has overwhelmingly accepted that Josh Smith is not a good basketball player, and it's time for 2K to meet with those perceptions.

I don't list Tony Allen as "overrated" because he's known as an elite defensive talent (and again, compare his numbers to Iguodala).  However, I would place that upon Trevor Ariza as he's gone from an elite marksman (41 3pt%) in Washington to below average (34 3pt%) in Houston.

Gerald Green has the fourth highest usage rate among SFs after the holy trinity of Durant/LeBron/Melo.  It's easy to peg him as a highlight reel sideshow without realizing how good of a scorer he is.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may never be a three-point shooter but the 47% he's shooting from mid-range (16-23 feet) sure as hell beats the 31% he shot over his first two seasons.

21-30
78 (NC) Wilson Chandler (13.3 PER, 54 TS%, 21 USG%, 7 AST%)
78 (-1) Nicolas Batum (12.3 PER, 46 TS%, 15 USG%, 21 AST%)
77 (+3) Giannis Antetokounmpo (16.3 PER, 56 TS%, 21 USG%, 12 AST%)
76 (-2) Jabari Parker (14.8 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 10 AST%)
76 (+1) DeMarre Carroll (13.7 PER, 57 TS%, 16 USG%, 7 AST%)
76 (+1) Corey Brewer (13.6 PER, 48 TS%, 20 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (NC) Terrence Ross (13.3 PER, 56 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
76 (-1) Danilo Gallinari (13.3 PER, 53 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)
76 (+1) Marcus Morris (12.8 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 10 AST%)
76 (NC) P.J. Tucker (12.3 PER, 58 TS%, 12 USG%, 9 AST%)

Batum is shooting the ball far worse (23 3PT%) than he ever has in his career (36 3PT%).  Portland will need him to get his aim straightened out if they hope to go deep in the playoffs.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is breaking out and he's not even legal drinking age.  Jabari Parker's knee injury may end up a blessing in disguise if it clears more playing time for the Greek Freak.

31-40
76 (-2) Gerald Henderson (11.2 PER, 54 TS%, 16 USG%, 10 AST%)
76 (NC) Matt Barnes (10.5 PER, 61 TS%, 15 USG%, 7 AST%)
76 (-1) Shawn Marion (9.6 PER, 50 TS%, 12 USG%, 7 AST%)
75 (+8) Shabazz Muhammad (22.4 PER, 57 TS%, 26 USG%, 9 AST%)
75 (NC) Khris Middleton (13.3 PER, 54 TS%, 20 USG%, 10 AST%)
75 (-1) Evan Turner (12.9 PER, 54 TS%, 20 USG%, 21 AST%)
75 (+1) Mike Dunleavey (12.2 PER, 59 TS%, 14 USG%, 9 AST%)
75 (NC) Tayshaun Prince (10.8 PER, 50 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
75 (-1) Andrew Wiggins (9.3 PER, 46 TS%, 22 USG%, 7 AST%)
75 (-1) Caron Butler (8.4 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 5 AST%)

The Mavericks were okay letting Shawn Marion walk away this off-season and thus far it's tough to blame them.  While Marion's rebounding is down due to playing shooting guard, his 2PT% continues to drop which is not all that surprising considering the one-time athletic freak is now 36.

Shabazz Muhammad is embracing the touches he's getting as the sixth man of a bad Wolves team.  One can't just point to his team's poor record as a reason for his stats because Michael Carter-Williams and others haven't been anywhere near as efficient.  With the 3rd highest PER at the position (behind Durant and LeBron) it goes without saying it's safe to rate Shabazz a wee-bit higher.

Case in point, Andrew Wiggins plays for the Wolves and does not look like a #1 pick right now.  This is somewhat expected given his scouting report heading into the draft.   He's not a go-to player yet and his athletic abilities would shine in a diminished role... rather than a team experimenting with Zach LaVine at point guard.

41-50
74 (+4) James Johnson (17.2 PER, 60 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
74 (NC) Aaron Gordon (15.5 PER, 65 TS%, 17 USG%, 7 AST%)
74 (NC) Al-Farouq Aminu (13.2 PER, 52 TS%, 16 USG%, 5 AST%)
74 (X) Shawne Williams (12.5 PER, 61 TS%, 14 USG%, 8 AST%)
74 (+1) Wesley Johnson (11.2 PER, 54 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
74 (NC) Kyle Singler (10.5 PER, 57 TS%, 14 USG%, 6 AST%)
74 (NC) Bojan Bogdanovic (9.1 PER, 52 TS%, 16 USG%, 5 AST%)
74 (NC) Maurice Harkless (8.3 PER, 51 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
73 (+7) Solomon Hill (11.0 PER, 49 TS%, 18 USG%, 11 AST%)
73 (+2) Chris Copeland (8.2 PER, 49 TS%, 22 USG%, 9 AST%)

James Johnson has proven that his 2014 season (18.5 PER) was no fluke.  He's one of the top backups in the league due to his extreme versatility.  Bogdanovic is basically "just there" on a bad Nets team.  Harkless has not improved since entering the league.  While still only 21 years old, the clock is ticking.  Shawne Williams should be listed at PF, the position he's played since 2010-11.

51-60
73 (+4) Perry Jones (7.9 PER, 51 TS%, 18 USG%, 5 AST%)
73 (NC) John Salmons (5.7 PER, 41 TS%, 10 USG%, 7 AST%)
73 (-2) Doug McDermott (4.1 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 2 AST%)
72 (X) Rasual Butler (18.3 PER, 67 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (NC) Omri Casspi (16.7 PER, 64 TS%, 18 USG%, 13 AST%)
72 (+2) James Ennis (12.9 PER, 55 TS%, 12 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (NC) Jae Crowder (12.8 PER, 55 TS%, 15 USG%, 6 AST%)
72 (+4) Otto Porter (12.5 PER, 55 TS%, 14 USG%, 7 AST%)
72 (+1) Derrick Williams (12.4 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 4 AST%)
72 (NC) Richard Jefferson (10.8 PER, 53 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)

Rasual Butler is comeback player of the year.  Shooting 53% from 3PT range probably means he should be rated higher than a dreg like John Salmons or a struggling rookie who can't defend like Doug McDermott.

Omri Casspi is having a solid season but unlike Butler it's not due to his shooting stroke.  After operating as a stretch-four for Houston last season, Casspi has completely abandoned his outside shot (2-14 3PT) and is instead shooting 60% from 2PT range.  Even crazier, Casspi has abandoned his mid-range shot as well (1-3 FG from 10-23 feet).  Casspi is only attacking the rim and in the process has doubled his FT rate (where hs is shooting 85%).  In my 20 years of watching the NBA I don't think I've ever seen a player who completely made over their game in the course of six months.

61-70
72 (NC) T.J. Warren (10.8 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
72 (-2) Luc Mbah a Moute (10.4 PER, 46 TS%, 18 USG%, 10 AST%)
72 (NEW) Kostas Papanikolaou (9.8 PER, 46 TS%, 15 USG%, 20 AST%)
72 (+5) Kyle Anderson (8.7 PER, 40 TS%, 13 USG%, 9 AST%)
72 (+1) Alan Anderson (7.7 PER, 52 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
72 (-4) Danny Granger (4.6 PER, 41 TS%, 16 USG%, 1 AST%)
71 (+2) Robert Covington (17.4 PER, 61 TS%, 22 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (+1) Alonzo Gee (13.8 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 7 AST%)
70 (+1) Reggie Bullock (9.3 PER, 60 TS%, 12 USG%, 3 AST%)
70 (NC) Chase Budinger (9.1 PER, 46 TS%, 18 USG%, 6 AST%)

Robert Covington is shooting 49% from 3PT over the month of December, averaging 3.4 threes made, while also shooting 90% from the line.  You think Miami would take that over Danny Granger's corpse?

71-83
70 (-4) Kent Bazemore (8.6 PER, 47 TS%, 16 USG%, 10 AST%)
70 (-1) Hollis Thompson (8.3 PER, 50 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (-1) Rodney Hood (7.2 PER, 46 TS%, 17 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (+2) Quincy Pondexter (6.3 PER, 43 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
69 (NC) Landry Fields (12.9 PER, 64 TS%, 11 USG%, 10 AST%)
69 (NEW) Damjan Rudez (6.3 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 7 AST%)
69 (+1) Jerami Grant (5.2 PER, 31 TS%, 18 USG%, 5 AST%)
68 (NC) Robbie Hummel (9.4 PER, 51 TS%, 12 USG%, 6 AST%)
68 (+2) Luke Babbitt (8.3 PER, 64 TS%, 11 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NEW) Joe Ingles (8.2 PER, 49 TS%, 10 USG%, 15 AST%)
67 (NC) Austin Daye (4.5 PER, 40 TS%, 23 USG%, 6 AST%)
66 (NC) Sergey Karasev (11.4 PER, 55 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
64 (NEW) Jakarr Sampson (5.1 PER, 41 TS%, 15 USG%, 10 AST%)

Landry Fields sighting in his contract year.  Ruh roh.

Karasev is outplaying Bogdanovic which summarizes the Nets season.

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (16)
89 (NC) Paul George (DNP)
73 (+1) Steve Novak (11.9 PER, 64 TS%, 17 USG%, 6 AST%)
72 (NC) Jeff Taylor (0.0 PER, 0 TS%, 0 USG%, 0 AST%)
71 (-1) Dorell Wright (9.9 PER, 51 TS%, 16 USG%, 7 AST%)
71 (+1) Cleanthony Early (9.3 PER, 47 TS%, 19 USG%, 12 AST%)
70 (+1) James Jones (16.0 PER, 67 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
70 (-3) Xavier Henry (4.9 PER, 42 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
70 (NC) Chris Douglas-Roberts (2.9 PER, 39 TS%, 12 USG%, 3 AST%)
69 (-5) Gerald Wallace (4.1 PER, 40 TS%, 6 USG%, 3 AST%)
69 (NEW) Damien Inglis (DNP)
68 (NEW) Glenn Robinson III (10.3 PER, 48 TS%, 16 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NEW) Devyn Marble (10.2 PER, 41 TS%, 45 USG%, 0 AST%)
68 (NC) Tony Mitchell (DNP)
67 (NC) Luigi Datome (11.9 PER, 44 TS%, 33 USG%, 18 AST%)
66 (NC) Victor Claver (DNP)
64 (NC) Bruno Caboclo (17.8 PER, 67 TS%, 24 USG%, 0 AST%)

FREE AGENTS (17)
72 (NC) Michael Beasley (DNP)
71 (+2) Darius Miller (-5.0 PER, 14 TS%, 8 USG%, 6 AST%)
70 (NC) Jordan Hamilton (DNP)
70 (NC) Carlos Delfino (DNP)
69 (NC) Francisco Garcia (3.8 PER, 35 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
69 (+1) Quincy Miller (+8) DEN
69 (NC) Travis Outlaw (DNP)
67 (NC) Damion James (DNP)
66 (NC) Reggie Williams (DNP)
66 (NC) Dahntay Jones (DNP)
64 (NC) Tornike Shengelia (DNP)
64 (NC) Lazar Hayward (DNP)
64 (NC) Rodney Carney (DNP)
63 (NEW) Shane Edwards (DNP)
63 (NC) Darington Hobson (DNP)
62 (NC) Sasha Pavlovic (DNP)
60 (NC) James Nunnally (DNP)

Saturday, December 20, 2014

NBA 2K15 Point Guard Ratings (12/19/14)

I'm here checking back on point guard ratings as there were a number of rating changes this week.  Nearly everyone I touched on last week saw an increase/decrease and I would like to think the data I put together was able to make some kind of contribution.  While 2K took some steps in the right direction, the job is still far from complete.

RATING CHANGES
90 Russell Westbrook (+2)
88 Kyle Lowry (+2)
87 Derrick Rose (-1)
86 Mike Conley (+2)
86 Tony Parker (-1)
82 Jeff Teague (+1)
79 Patrick Beverley (+2)
79 Michael Carter-Williams (-1)
76 Dennis Schroder (+1)
76 Aaron Brooks (+1)
76 C.J. Watson (+1)
75 Nate Robinson (-1)
74 Marcus Smart (-1)
74 Matthew Dellavedova (+1)
73 Isaiah Canaan (+1)
73 Jarrett Jack (-1)
73 Elfrid Payton (-1)
73 Ramon Sessions (-1)
73 Jordan Farmar (+1)
72 Dante Exum (-2)
71 Shelvin Mack (-1)

The big movers were all the key figures from last week.  Aside from Westbrook, I'm content with their current standing.

RATING TIERS
95-99: All-Time Great
90-94: Superstar
85-89: All-Star
80-84: Above average starter (or elite backup)
75-79: Average NBA player (Mediocre starter, quality backup)
70-74: Specialist (1-2 skills keeping player in league)
65-69: Fringe NBA player

POINT GUARDS (72)
1-10
91 (+2) Stephen Curry (26.9 PER, 62 TS%, 29 USG%, 38 AST%)
90 (+2) Russell Westbrook (32.7 PER, 58 TS%, 40 USG%, 50 AST%)
90 (-1) Chris Paul (25.4 PER, 60 TS%, 22 USG%, 46 AST%)
88 (+3) Kyle Lowry (23.4 PER, 56 TS%, 26 USG%, 37 AST%)
88 (+2) John Wall (21.1 PER, 53 TS%, 26 USG%, 47 AST%)
87 (NC) Damian Lillard (22.4 PER, 59 TS%, 25 USG%, 29 AST%)
87 (+1) Kyrie Irving (20.3 PER, 58 TS%, 23 USG%, 23 AST%)
87 (-1) Derrick Rose (17.1 PER, 52 TS%, 32 USG%, 35 AST%)
86 (+3) Mike Conley (20.4 PER, 57 TS%, 24 USG%, 31 AST%)
86 (-2) Tony Parker (16.9 PER, 58 TS%, 24 USG%, 30 AST%)

THE WESTBROOK WATCH
2015 Russell Westbrook: 58.4 TS%, 39.7 USG% (90 Overall)
2006 Kobe Bryant: 55.9 TS%, 38.7 USG%
1987 Michael Jordan: 56.2 TS%, 38.3 USG%
2002 Allen Iverson: 48.9 TS%, 37.8 USG%
2015 Kobe Bryant: 48.5 TS%, 36.4 USG% (89 Overall)

Westbrook is starting to get his due from 2K and his numbers through 12 games clearly warrant even higher ratings.

Rose shot 12-35 (1-10 3PT) in his two games since last week, while recording another 7 turnovers (to 11 assists).  With a 1.57 A/T ratio and scoring numbers not even in the same ballpark as Westbrook/Curry, it's clear as day Rose is no longer an all-star, much less a superstar.

At press-time Damian Lillard's career high 43 points in tonight's triple overtime victory are not factored into his stats, so you can be sure his rating will go up shortly.

11-20
85 (+1) Deron Williams (17.1 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 33 AST%)
85 (-2) Rajon Rondo (15.1 PER, 42 TS%, 18 USG%, 47 AST%)
83 (+3) Isaiah Thomas (20.9 PER, 58 TS%, 28 USG%, 27 AST%)
83 (-1) Ty Lawson (17.2 PER, 50 TS%, 21 USG%, 44 AST%)
82 (+4) Jeff Teague (21.2 PER, 59 TS%, 25 USG%, 37 AST%)
82 (NC) Jrue Holiday (19.1 PER, 53 TS%, 22 USG%, 32 AST%)
82 (-2) Goran Dragic (17.5 PER, 58 TS%, 22 USG%, 22 AST%)
82 (+1) Eric Bledsoe (17.2 PER, 55 TS%, 23 USG%, 28 AST%)
81 (+2) Brandon Knight (18.5 PER, 57 TS%, 26 USG%, 28 AST%)
80 (+1) Darren Collison (18.0 PER, 54 TS%, 22 USG%, 31 AST%)

In the NBA season's first big shakeup, Rajon Rondo was traded to the Dallas Mavericks.  There are many questions about how Rondo will fit in Dallas, and they are giving up a substantial piece in Brandan Wright (26.1 PER, 4th in the NBA).  Offensively, Rondo's awful shooting and ball-dominant style would not seem to mesh well with Monta Ellis in the backcourt.  Defensively, Rondo has been a vastly overrated defender for a few years and the team just gave up their only backup center (though it is worth noting Jermaine O'Neal has been hanging out in Dallas).  Whether or not he can turn his season and career around with this change of scenery, all eyes are on Rondo now.

21-30
80 (-2) Kemba Walker (16.6 PER, 48 TS%, 24 USG%, 27 AST%)
80 (NC) Brandon Jennings (15.5 PER, 49 TS%, 23 USG%, 38 AST%)
80 (+2) Reggie Jackson (15.3 PER, 50 TS%, 24 USG%, 29 AST%)
79 (NC) Ricky Rubio (15.9 PER, 46 TS%, 20 USG%, 56 AST%)
79 (+1) Patrick Beverley (14.8 PER, 57 TS%, 16 USG%, 16 AST%)
79 (-1) Michael Carter-Williams (12.4 PER, 45 TS%, 28 USG%, 43 AST%)
78 (NC) Jose Calderon (12.3 PER, 54 TS%, 14 USG%, 20 AST%)
77 (+1) Kirk Hinrich (8.5 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (+1) Dennis Schroder (18.5 PER, 55 TS%, 25 USG%, 31 AST%)
76 (NC) Andre Miller (17.2 PER, 63 TS%, 15 USG%, 39 AST%)

It's been weird watching Jose Calderon's 3-year transformation from premier passing PG to the poor-man's Pablo Prigioni.

Hinrich was scoreless in two of his three games this week.  It's obvious he's not a top-30 PG.

31-40
76 (+3) Aaron Brooks (16.4 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 30 AST%)
76 (+1) C.J. Watson (16.0 PER, 57 TS%, 21 USG%, 29 AST%)
76 (+1) Mario Chalmers (15.2 PER, 56 TS%, 22 USG%, 24 AST%)
76 (+2) Tony Wroten (14.1 PER, 50 TS%, 29 USG%, 37 AST%)
76 (-1) Jeremy Lin (13.2 PER, 54 TS%, 19 USG%, 27 AST%)
76 (NC) Greivis Vasquez (12.7 PER, 47 TS%, 23 USG%, 24 AST%)
75 (+1) J.J. Barea (18.8 PER, 53 TS%, 22 USG%, 33 AST%)
75 (NC) Devin Harris (15.9 PER, 58 TS%, 16 USG%, 23 AST%)
75 (-1) Mo Williams (13.1 PER, 49 TS%, 21 USG%, 40 AST%)
75 (-1) D.J. Augustin (11.9 PER, 49 TS%, 21 USG%, 26 AST%)

The Rondo trade could have a deep impact on Barea and Harris.  Jameer Nelson is a little easier to beat out for playing-time.

41-50
75 (NC) Trey Burke (11.6 PER, 46 TS%, 21 USG%, 27 AST%)
75 (-1) Jameer Nelson (10.0 PER, 50 TS%, 16 USG%, 22 AST%)
75 (-1) Nate Robinson (8.1 PER, 41 TS%, 23 USG%, 23 AST%)
74 (NC) Beno Udrih (16.2 PER, 57 TS%, 19 USG%, 32 AST%)
74 (NC) Brian Roberts (13.2 PER, 51 TS%, 19 USG%, 21 AST%)
74 (-2) Marcus Smart (11.7 PER, 48 TS%, 18 USG%, 13 AST%)
74 (-1) Norris Cole (10.9 PER, 45 TS%, 16 USG%, 22 AST%)
74 (+2) Matthew Dellavedova (6.2 PER, 45 TS%, 12 USG%, 18 AST%)
73 (NC) Cory Joseph (15.8 PER, 56 TS%, 18 USG%, 19 AST%)
73 (-1) Shaun Livingston (13.5 PER, 56 TS%, 17 USG%, 22 AST%)

It's clear the Mavericks gave up on Jameer Nelson, who didn't shoot nearly well enough in his limited touches to warrant putting up with the rest of his limitations.  As much as Nelson would like to play for a contender, he'll start mentoring Marcus Smart effective immediately (who is poised for a major breakout with this news).

Dellavedova inexplicably went up 1 OVR.  He's a poor-man's Kirk Hinrich but is rated what the real-life Hinrich should be.

51-60
73 (+1) Isaiah Canaan (13.1 PER, 58 TS%, 19 USG%, 14 AST%)
73 (-1) Jarrett Jack (12.3 PER, 50 TS%, 20 USG%, 23 AST%)
73 (-1) Kendall Marshall (11.7 PER, 60 TS%, 15 USG%, 30 AST%)
73 (-1) Elfrid Payton (10.4 PER, 41 TS%, 19 USG%, 30 AST%)
73 (-1) Ramon Sessions (10.1 PER, 46 TS%, 21 USG%, 24 AST%)
73 (+1) Jordan Farmar (9.7 PER, 54 TS%, 17 USG%, 18 AST%)
73 (-1) Shabazz Napier (9.5 PER, 56 TS%, 16 USG%, 15 AST%)
72 (NC) Pablo Prigioni (14.1 PER, 64 TS%, 13 USG%, 19 AST%)
72 (NC) Luke Ridnour (11.0 PER, 52 TS%, 14 USG%, 26 AST%
72 (+1) Steve Blake (9.8 PER, 50 TS%, 12 USG%, 27 AST%)

I will take solace in that I was right about Pablo Prigoni being an effective triangle player.  It's the only enjoyment I've gotten out of the Knicks this season.

61-73
72 (-2) Dante Exum (8.8 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 18 AST%)
72 (-3) Nate Wolters (3.8 PER, 38 TS%, 12 USG%, 7 AST%)
71 (+6) Donald Sloan (12.9 PER, 48 TS%, 20 USG%, 26 AST%)
71 (NC) Shelvin Mack (12.5 PER, 48 TS%, 19 USG%, 28 AST%)
71 (-1) Shane Larkin (9.7 PER, 51 TS%, 13 USG%, 15 AST%)
71 (-3) Ray McCallum (6.4 PER, 51 TS%, 18 USG%, 11 AST%)
70 (NC) Jordan Clarkson (14.5 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 11 AST%)
70 (NC) Phil Pressey (9.5 PER, 41 TS%, 14 USG%, 25 AST%)
70 (-2) Zach LaVine (8.0 PER, 47 TS%, 20 USG%, 21 AST%)
69 (NC) Ronnie Price (8.4 PER, 39 TS%, 12 USG%, 23 AST%)
68 (-4) Jimmer Fredette (2.9 PER, 32 TS%, 15 USG%, 13 AST%)
67 (NC) Leandro Barbosa (12.4 PER, 50 TS%, 20 USG%, 12 AST%)
66 (NC) A.J. Price (16.3 PER, 52 TS%, 24 USG%, 26 AST%)

Mack had a huge game (24 points, 6-6 3PT) against Cleveland to salvage his season.  Prior to that explosion he'd only broken double figures twice.

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (14)
78 (NC) George Hill (DNP)
77 (NC) Patrick Mills (DNP)
76 (NC) Steve Nash (DNP)
74 (NC) Raymond Felton (DNP)
72 (NC) Nick Calathes (6.7 PER, 34 TS%, 16 USG%, 36 AST%)
71 (NC) Tyler Ennis (13.6 PER, 58 TS%, 23 USG%, 32 AST%)
69 (NEW) Spencer Dinwiddie (7.4 PER, 38 TS%, 17 USG%, 29 AST%)
68 (NEW) Erick Green (13.7 PER, 56 TS%, 23 USG%, 21 AST%)
68 (NC) Ish Smith (14.0 PER, 45 TS%, 19 USG%, 20 AST%)
68 (-1) Russ Smith (-34.1 PER, 0 TS%, 25 USG%, 0 AST%)
67 (NEW) Darius Morris (13.9 PER, 45 TS%, 28 USG%, 64 AST%)
67 (NC) Jannero Pargo (13.5 PER, 55 TS%, 25 USG%, 15 AST%)
67 (NC) Jared Cunningham (2.4 PER, 36 TS%, 23 USG%, 18 AST%)
66 (NC) Toure Murry (DNP)

FREE AGENTS (21)
72 (+2) Will Bynum (DNP)
69 (NC) Sebastian Telfair (11.8 PER, 48 TS%, 22 USG%, 23 AST%)
69 (NC) Marquis Teague (DNP)
69 (NC) Diante Garrett (DNP)
69 (NC) John Lucas (DNP)
68 (NC) Nando De Colo (DNP)
67 (NC) Will Cherry (5.9 PER, 35 TS%, 17 USG%, 16 AST%)
67 (NC) Gal Mekel (0.6 PER, 15 TS%, 23 USG%, 40 AST%)
67 (NC) Kalin Lucas (-0.6 PER, 0 TS%, 8 USG%, 0 AST%)
67 (NC) Nemanja Nedovic (DNP)
67 (NC) Julyan Stone (DNP)
66 (NC) Dwight Buycks (DNP)
66 (NC) Casper Ware (DNP)
66 (NC) Peyton Siva (DNP)
65 (NC) Jorge Gutierrez (11.1 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 27 AST%)
65 (NC) Lorenzo Brown (DNP)
65 (NC) Seth Curry (DNP)
65 (NC) Josh Akognon (DNP)
65 (NC) Sherron Collins (DNP)
65 (NC) Mike James (DNP)
60 (NC) Orien Greene (DNP)

Monday, December 15, 2014

NBA 2K15 Shooting Guard Ratings (12/15/14)

Shooting guard is the most difficult position to statistically evaluate, as a metric like PER is not exactly an accurate measurement stick.  PER factors a player's Usage rate, which causes a great degree of variance.

"Shooting Guard" used to be called "Off-Guard", as in the guard who played off the ball. Michael Jordan changed all that, paving the way for ball-dominant big guards like Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Brandon Roy (gone but not forgotten), and James Harden.

Studies and have shown that teams play better with only one primary ball-handler, which is why Derek Fisher spent his career next to Kobe and why Hall of Famer Gary Payton was such a dud next to him.  Mario Chalmers has been glued to Wade his entire career, and Patrick Beverley is clearly a better compliment to Harden than a scoring PG like Jeremy Lin (which is likewise why Ronnie Price is starting next to Kobe).

The NBA is a point guard league right now, which means the stats of all SG consequently suffer.  Many starting SG are effectively defense/shooting specialists, as their shot creation ability may not be highly valued.  This is why so many quality SG become sixth men (Manu Ginobili, Jamal Crawford), where their scoring tools are better utilized (they come in when other high-usage players hit the bench).  However even those players are getting squeezed out by teams who recognize the value in running dual-PG lineups.  Reggie Jackson may very well take the court in crunch time next to Russell Westbrook, despite OKC having three capable SG.

Therefore, it takes greater knowledge of the players and their teams to understand whether that player is over or under performing.  Merely looking at stats isn't quite the end-all-be-all.  A SG could change teams and suddenly find themselves in a much different role.  This list isn't nearly as straightforward as the point guard list.  I tried to limit my usage of the "Blue Hammer", but there is simply an abundance of SG who are playing poorly.

SHOOTING GUARD (76)
1-10
89 (+1) James Harden (25.3 PER, 58 TS%, 32 USG%, 35 AST%)
89 (NC) Kobe Bryant (19.3 PER, 49 TS%, 36 USG%, 25 AST%)
87 (+1) Dwyane Wade (22.9 PER, 56 TS%, 34 USG%, 38 AST%)
85 (+3) Klay Thompson (20.1 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 17 AST%)
85 (NC) DeMar DeRozan (16.8 PER, 49 TS%, 29 USG%, 13 AST%)
84 (+4) Jimmy Butler (21.0 PER, 60 TS%, 22 USG%, 14 AST%)
83 (+1) Monta Ellis (19.2 PER, 53 TS%, 29 USG%, 22 AST%)
83 (NC) Manu Ginobili (16.8 PER, 54 TS%, 25 USG%, 30 AST%)
83 (+1) Joe Johnson (15.9 PER, 54 TS%, 22 USG%, 19 AST%)
81 (+2) Kevin Martin (21.3 PER, 65 TS%, 25 USG%, 12 AST%)

I've been lobbying for 2K to drop Kobe's ratings for over 10 years now.  He is clearly not the player he used to be, and I'm not sure I would even consider him top 5 (he's certainly not top 3) yet he is tied for the top SG rating and tied for 6th best in the NBA.  Even the most rabid Kobe supporter has to relent at some point.  For what it's worth I had Kobe at 83 OVR entering the year, which is appropriate, because the guy is a glorified Monta Ellis at this point (a chucker who'll win fantasy basketball championships but coaches/statisticians/fans know he's no star).

Harden has emerged as the best SG in the league.  For all the talk about how bad his defense is, he's played the 2nd most minutes on the #2 defense in the league.

Wade is reminding everyone that a bad series against the Spurs defense doesn't mean his career is over.

DeRozan has shot the ball poorly (back down to 25 3PT%, but also only 40% from 2PT) and Kyle Lowry has done most of the heavy lifting for Toronto.  DeRozan might have been awarded All-Star status by the coaches last season but you'd better believe in hindsight that they'd all give it to Lowry without blinking.

Jimmy Buckets has been playing out of his mind considering he's a defensive specialist playing next to ball-dominant Derrick Rose.  Players who average 20 PPG by virtue of their efficiency rather than their volume of shots are an extremely rare breed.

Joe Johnson and Kevin Martin are on two different playing fields as scorers.  When Martin is healthy, he's electric.  When Johnson is healthy, he's erratic.

11-20
81 (NC) Bradley Beal (14.1 PER, 55 TS%, 23 USG%, 16 AST%)
81 (-3) Lance Stephenson (10.5 PER, 43 TS%, 20 USG%, 24 AST%)
80 (NC) Jamal Crawford (19.5 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 19 AST%)
80 (+2) Kyle Korver (17.3 PER, 75 TS%, 14 USG%, 15 AST%)
79 (+2) Louis Williams (20.6 PER, 58 TS%, 28 USG%, 10 AST%)
79 (+1) Wesley Matthews (16.2 PER, 61 TS%, 20 USG%, 11 AST%)
78 (+2) Courtney Lee (16.2 PER, 67 TS%, 15 USG%, 11 AST%)
78 (NC) Nick Young (16.1 PER, 55 TS%, 25 USG%, 4 AST%)
78 (NC) Victor Oladipo (15.9 PER, 56 TS%, 24 USG%, 20 AST%)
78 (+1) O.J. Mayo (13.0 PER, 51 TS%, 23 USG%, 21 AST%)

Beal has been anointed a future star but he's still got a long way to go.  He just isn't a multi-faceted player - his production isn't dissimilar from young O.J. Mayo (look how that turned out).

Ditto for Lance Stephenson, who has been pushed as a future star.  Despite his versatility, it's his ugly shooting that has Charlotte collecting losses once again.

Crawford and Lou Williams are the best microwave scorers in the league.  There is a stark difference between them and the likes of O.J. Mayo (who isn't even on the same level as Nick Young).

21-30
78 (+1) Iman Shumpert (12.3 PER, 48 TS%, 21 USG%, 21 AST%)
77 (-1) Danny Green (16.0 PER, 61 TS%, 17 USG%, 9 AST%)
77 (NC) J.J. Redick (14.7 PER, 62 TS%, 20 USG%, 9 AST%)
77 (-1) Arron Afflalo (13.6 PER, 57 TS%, 20 USG%, 8 AST%)
77 (+1) Alec Burks (13.1 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 15 AST%)
77 (-1) Avery Bradley (10.2 PER, 51 TS%, 20 USG%, 5 AST%)
77 (-2) Eric Gordon (8.6 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 16 AST%)
76 (NC) Marcus Thornton (15.3 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 8 AST%)
76 (+1) Marco Belinelli (15.1 PER, 58 TS%, 20 USG%, 12 AST%)

Danny Green has improved every season and his production is rising just as the Big 3 are starting to decline. As a premier 3-N-D player,  he should be rated on the same plane as Wesley Matthews (79) and Courtney Lee (78).  I honestly wouldn't mind if the lot of these guys were rated 80 OVR, they're in the top half of starting SG thanks to their efficient shooting and quality defense.

The book is in on Iman Shumpert.  He is a bad offensive player (and injury prone, to boot).

Eric Gordon might be the worst value in the NBA, as minimum salary players could outperform this max contract player.  The Pelicans desperately need a shooting specialist because the touches simply aren't there for the ball-dominant guard (good thing they let Anthony Morrow walk, eh?).  Gordon could regain his value on the right team but as it stands he is a detriment when compared next to the likes of Marcus Thornton and Marco Belinelli.

31-40
76 (+1) Rodney Stuckey (15.0 PER, 50 TS%, 26 USG%, 20 AST%)
76 (+1) Gary Neal (14.8 PER, 54 TS%, 24 USG%, 11 AST%)
76 (+2) Jerryd Bayless (11.8 PER, 57 TS%, 17 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (-2) Dion Waiters (10.7 PER, 47 TS%, 23 USG%, 15 AST%)
75 (-2) Tim Hardaway Jr (13.8 PER, 52 TS%, 25 USG%, 12 AST%)
75 (+3) Evan Fournier (13.0 PER, 56 TS%, 21 USG%, 12 AST%)
75 (-3) J.R. Smith (11.6 PER, 49 TS%, 23 USG%, 22 AST%)
75 (+1) Thabo Sefolosha (9.4 PER, 40 TS%, 15 USG%, 10 AST%)
75 (-2) Vince Carter (8.3 PER, 42 TS%, 22 USG%, 13 AST%)
75 (+1) Mike Miller (2.2 PER, 41 TS%, 8 USG%, 3 AST%)

Dion Waiters isn't just the Michael Beasley of SGs, he is a bad player to boot. With so many better scoring options around him and such a poor outside touch, the odds of him becoming a key contributor for the Cavaliers are slim.

It goes without saying that Sefolosha, Carter, and Miller are all shooting the ball especially poorly for their new teams.

Bayless' rating drops an appropriate degree if his position is changed to PG.

41-50
74 (X) K.J. McDaniels (12.4 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 9 AST%)
74 (NC) Randy Foye (12.0 PER, 52 TS%, 20 USG%, 17 AST%)
74 (NC) Jason Terry (11.2 PER, 56 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
74 (+2) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (9.7 PER, 49 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
73 (NC) Jeremy Lamb (16.2 PER, 56 TS%, 20 USG%, 13 AST%)
73 (NC) Anthony Morrow (12.9 PER, 54 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
73 (-1) Jared Dudley (10.5 PER, 54 TS%, 12 USG%, 11 AST%)
73 (+1) Austin Rivers (10.4 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 16 AST%)
73 (-1) Ben McLemore (10.3 PER, 59 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
73 (+1) Tony Snell (6.9 PER, 56 TS%, 11 USG%, 3 AST%)

KCP is the shooting specialist who can't.  Lamb is quietly having a productive season.  Snell is low-usage specialist, just not a very good one.

Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon have identical TS, USG, and AST rates which tells you how far the latter has fallen.

51-76
73 (NC) C.J. Miles (6.5 PER, 42 TS%, 25 USG%, 11 AST%)
72 (NC) Ben Gordon (13.0 PER, 57 TS%, 22 USG%, 12 AST%)
72 (NC) C.J. McCollum (11.2 PER, 55 TS%, 18 USG%, 12 AST%)
72 (+4) Garrett Temple (10.5 PER, 50 TS%, 14 USG%, 11 AST%)
72 (+4) Andre Roberson (9.5 PER, 47 TS%, 10 USG%, 9 AST%)
72 (-2) Nik Stauskas (5.3 PER, 43 TS%, 14 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (+1) Willie Green (3.4 PER, 36 TS%, 17 USG%, 8 AST%)
71 (NC) P.J. Hairston (9.1 PER, 45 TS%, 20 USG%, 8 AST%)
71 (NC) Gary Harris (3.3 PER, 33 TS%, 19 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (NC) Alexey Shved (19.5 PER, 55 TS%, 26 USG%, 33 AST%)
70 (-1) Wayne Ellington (13.7 PER, 55 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
70 (-1) Nick Johnson (4.6 PER, 39 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
69 (-1) Will Barton (4.8 PER, 43 TS%, 19 USG%, 11 AST%)
69 (NC) Brandon Rush (-1.9 PER, 21 TS%, 11 USG%, 5 AST%)
68 (+1) Allan Crabbe (10.2 PER, 62 TS%, 11 USG%, 8 AST%)
68 (NC) Joe Harris (4.8 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 10 AST%)

C.J. Miles is having a nightmare season.  Nik Stauskas has been awful.  Willie Green is even worse.  Brandon Rush is in the league out of sympathy at this point.

Ben Gordon is having a mini-comeback.  Alexey Shved is producing for a change (and should really be listed at PG).  Ellington is comfortably filling Jodie Meeks' shoes in LA. Allan Crabbe's shooting should put him a couple notches higher than the numerous SG who haven't put the ball in the hole.

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (19)
75 (+1) Jodie Meeks (DNP)
74 (+1) Martell Webster (DNP)
73 (NC) Jason Richardson (DNP)
71 (NC) E'Twaun Moore (9.8 PER, 35 TS%, 18 USG%, 18 AST%)
70 (-1) Jordan Adams (7.4 PER, 39 TS%, 11 USG%, 16 AST%)
70 (NEW) Zoran Dragic (-19.7 PER, 0 TS%, 22 USG%, 0 AST%)
69 (+1) Markel Brown (4.7 PER, 46 TS%, 24 USG%, 17 AST%)
69 (NC) Glen Rice (-3.7 PER, 31 TS%, 21 USG%, 6 AST%)
69 (NC) Archie Goodwin (10.9 PER, 41 TS%, 24 USG%, 11 AST%)
69 (-2) Troy Daniels (1.1 PER, 41 TS%, 24 USG%, 7 AST%)
68 (NC) James Young (22.4 PER, 65 TS%, 20 USG%, 10 AST%)
68 (NC) John Jenkins (10.6 PER, 52 TS%, 24 USG%, 0 AST%)
68 (-2) Cartier Martin (1.2 PER, 37 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
67 (NC) C.J. Wilcox (37.8 PER, 90 TS%, 21 USG%, 34 AST%)
67 (NC) Ian Clark (11.2 PER, 55 TS%, 15 USG%, 6 AST%)
67 (NC) Ricky Ledo (DNP)
65 (NEW) Patrick Christopher (DNP)
64 (NC) Justin Holiday (-1.0 PER, 35 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
64 (NEW) Andre Dawkins (-1.4 PER, 50 TS%, 15 USG%, 0 AST%)

FREE AGENTS (18)
78 (NC) Ray Allen (DNP)
74 (NC) Jordan Crawford (DNP
71 (NC) James Anderson (DNP)
71 (NC) MarShon Brooks (DNP)
70 (NC) Elliot Williams (DNP)
69 (NEW) Malcolm Lee (-19.6 PER, 0 TS%, 22 USG%, 0 AST%)
69 (NC) Jamaal Franklin (DNP)
69 (NC) Ronnie Brewer (DNP)
69 (NC) Doron Lamb (DNP)
68 (NC) Chris Johnson (5.9 PER, 43 TS%, 17 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NC) Shannon Brown (4.4 PER, 48 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
68 (NC) Carrick Felix (DNP)
68 (NC) Keith Bogans (DNP)
65 (NC) Othyus Jeffers (DNP)
65 (NC) Jason Kapono (DNP)
65 (NC) Dionte Christmas (DNP)
65 (NC) Kim English (DNP)
64 (NC) Vander Blue (DNP)

Saturday, December 13, 2014

NBA 2K15 Point Guard Ratings (12/13/14)

With six weeks of NBA action already complete, I thought it would be worth checking on the state of NBA 2K15 player ratings to see how much they have changed with respect to player performance

The listed rating change is how much the player's Overall rating changed from the default roster (as will be the case in future installments, to give an idea of how much progress the player made this season).  Bear in mind that many players had OVR go up or down a point when Speed/Stamina ratings were revamped league-wide.

When ranking the players by their OVR rating you can see natural tier lists that help guide us to where these players ratings should sit.

95-99: All-Time Great
90-94: Superstar
85-89: All-Star
80-84: Quality NBA player (Fringe All-Star)
75-79: Average NBA player (Mediocre starter, quality backup)
70-74: Specialist (1-2 skills keeping player in league)
65-69: Fringe NBA player

POINT GUARDS (72)
1-10
91 (+2) Stephen Curry (26.9 PER, 63 TS%, 29 USG%, 39 AST%)
90 (-1) Chris Paul (26.4 PER, 61 TS%, 22 USG%, 47 AST%)
88 (NC) Russell Westbrook (31.7 PER, 60 TS%, 39 USG%, 54 AST%)
88 (+2) John Wall (20.5 PER, 53 TS%, 26 USG%, 47 AST%)
88 (NC) Derrick Rose (18.5 PER, 55 TS%, 32 USG%, 34 AST%)
87 (NC) Damian Lillard (22.4 PER, 60 TS%, 25 USG%, 29 AST%)
87 (+1) Kyrie Irving (21.1 PER, 58 TS%, 23 USG%, 23 AST%)
87 (-1) Tony Parker (16.9 PER, 58 TS%, 24 USG%, 30 AST%)
86 (+1) Kyle Lowry (23.2 PER, 55 TS%, 25 USG%, 35 AST%)
85 (+1) Deron Williams (17.2 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 31 AST%)

Westbrook has been balling out of his mind (albeit only 9 games due to injury).  His 39 USG will drop (would set the all-time mark), but when you factor that against his TS it's insane.  Just to give you an idea of how well Westbrook is playing... (and how bad Allen Iverson was, but I digress).

2015 Russell Westbrook: 59.8 TS%, 38.8 USG%,
2006 Kobe Bryant: 55.9 TS%, 38.7 USG%
1987 Michael Jordan: 56.2 TS%, 38.3 USG%
2002 Allen Iverson: 48.9 TS%, 37.8 USG%
2015 Kobe Bryant: 48.9 TS%, 36.2 USG%

Westbrook (88) is rated lower than Kobe (89) even though they're on completely different planets right now.  He's been a better player than John Wall and Derrick Rose for a couple years now. Hopefully 2K will give the man his due (FWIW, I also consider Curry/Paul to be 1-2 points underrated).

Speaking of Rose, he's playing well but not at his MVP-caliber levels.  It's clear from his numbers that he's not a top 5 PG right now.  Kyle Lowry on the other hand has been the East's best PG dating back to last season but continues to get overlooked in favor of bigger names like Rose, Wall, and Kyrie.

Deron Williams has no business being top 10.  He  had some early buzz about a return to form but his production is marginally worse than last season.  Enough is enough.  The same can actually be said of Tony Parker who is a long way from the explosive scorer he was two years ago.

11-20
85 (-2) Rajon Rondo (14.5 PER, 41 TS%, 18 USG%, 47 AST%)
84 (+1) Mike Conley (20.8 PER, 59 TS%, 23 USG%, 31 AST%)
83 (+3) Isaiah Thomas (22.7 PER, 60 TS%, 28 USG%, 29 AST%)
83 (-1) Ty Lawson (18.2 PER, 50 TS%, 22 USG%, 44 AST%)
82 (NC) Jrue Holiday (19.3 PER, 54 TS%, 22 USG%, 32 AST%)
82 (+1) Eric Bledsoe (18.2 PER, 57 TS%, 23 USG%, 29 AST%)
82 (-2) Goran Dragic (17.2 PER, 58 TS%, 22 USG%, 21 AST%)
81 (+3) Jeff Teague (21.2 PER, 60 TS%, 25 USG%, 37 AST%)
81 (+2) Brandon Knight (19.0 PER, 57 TS%, 26 USG%, 30 AST%)
80 (+1) Darren Collison (19.4 PER, 55 TS%, 23 USG%, 32 AST%)

How NOT to chase history:
2015 Rajon Rondo: 41.0 TS%
2008 Ben Wallace: 40.8 TS%

One of these players was a four-time Defensive Player of the Year to counteract his offensive ineptitude.  The other is Rajon Rondo.

Jeff Teague is having a breakout year, a leading reason the Hawks are 3rd in the East and winners of their last 9 games.  Brandon Knight and Darren Collison are likewise having breakouts while leading their teams beyond expectations.

21-30
80 (+2) Reggie Jackson (16.6 PER, 51 TS%, 25 USG%, 32 AST%)
80 (NC) Brandon Jennings (16.0 PER, 50 TS%, 24 USG%, 37 AST%)
80 (-2) Kemba Walker (15.9 PER, 47 TS%, 23 USG%, 27 AST%)
80 (NC) Michael Carter-Williams (12.8 PER, 45 TS%, 28 USG%, 43 AST%)
79 (NC) Ricky Rubio (15.9 PER, 46 TS%, 20 USG%, 56 AST%)
78 (NC) Jose Calderon (13.5 PER, 57 TS%, 14 USG%, 22 AST%)
77 (-1) Patrick Beverley (16.1 PER, 59 TS%, 18 USG%, 16 AST%)
77 (+1) Kirk Hinrich (9.8 PER, 50 TS%, 16 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (NC) Andre Miller (16.5 PER, 64 TS%, 14 USG%, 39 AST%)
76 (+1) Mario Chalmers (15.5 PER, 57 TS%, 22 USG%, 25 AST%)

MCW isn't having nearly the success he had as a rookie, though recovering from injury hasn't helped.

Patrick Beverley has become the NBA's premier 3-N-D player a leading reason the Rockets 17-5 with the 2nd best defense in the league.  Comparing Beverley straight against Kirk Hinrich makes their ratings look plain silly.

31-40
76 (+2) Tony Wroten (14.8 PER, 49 TS%, 30 USG%, 38 AST%)
76 (-1) Jeremy Lin (13.5 PER, 55 TS%, 19 USG%, 26 AST%)
76 (NC) Greivis Vasquez (13.1 PER, 48 TS%, 23 USG%, 24 AST%)
76 (NC) Nate Robinson (9.7 PER, 43 TS%, 23 USG%, 22 AST%)
75 (+5) Dennis Schroder (19.1 PER, 57 TS%, 24 USG%, 29 AST%)
75 (+2) Aaron Brooks (16.4 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 30 AST%)
75 (NC) Devin Harris (15.4 PER, 57 TS%, 17 USG%, 22 AST%)
75 (NC) C.J. Watson (14.7 PER, 49 TS%, 21 USG%, 30 AST%)
75 (-1) Mo Williams (13.2 PER, 49 TS%, 21 USG%, 40 AST%)
75 (-1) D.J. Augustin (12.4 PER, 50 TS%, 22 USG%, 26 AST%)

Coming off a dreadful rookie season, Schroder pound for pound might be the league's most improved player (although not a candidate for the award, as it's typically given to players who log heavy minutes).

41-50
75 (-1) Marcus Smart (11.8 PER, 48 TS%, 18 USG%, 13 AST%)
75 (NC) Trey Burke (11.5 PER, 45 TS%, 20 USG%, 29 AST%)
75 (-1) Jameer Nelson (11.0 PER, 51 TS%, 16 USG%, 23 AST%)
74 (NC) J.J. Barea (19.4 PER, 52 TS%, 22 USG%, 33 AST%)
74 (NC) Beno Udrih (16.3 PER, 58 TS%, 20 USG%, 30 AST%)
74 (NC) Jarrett Jack (12.5 PER, 50 TS%, 16 USG%, 21 AST%)
74 (-1) Norris Cole (11.9 PER, 48 TS%, 16 USG%, 23 AST%)
74 (NC) Brian Roberts (11.5 PER, 48 TS%, 18 USG%, 20 AST%)
74 (NC) Elfrid Payton (10.4 PER, 41 TS%, 19 USG%, 30 AST%)
74 (NC) Ramon Sessions (9.4 PER, 45 TS%, 21 USG%, 23 AST%)

J.J. Barea has thoroughly outplayed Mavericks starter Jameer Nelson but is better suited to a bench role.   Beno Udrih is likewise having a bounce-back year with a stable bench role.

51-60
74 (NC) Dante Exum (7.3 PER, 48 TS%, 15 USG%, 17 AST%)
73 (NC) Cory Joseph (16.5 PER, 56 TS%, 19 USG%, 20 AST%)
73 (-1) Shaun Livingston (12.0 PER, 53 TS%, 22 USG%, 23 AST%)
73 (-1) Kendall Marshall (11.5 PER, 61 TS%, 15 USG%, 28 AST%)
73 (-1) Shabazz Napier (9.2 PER, 56 TS%, 15 USG%, 15 AST%)
73 (+1) Matthew Dellavedova (8.2 PER, 48 TS%, 11 USG%, 20 AST%)
72 (NC) Isaiah Canaan (13.9 PER, 19 USG%, 14 AST%)
72 (NC) Pablo Prigioni (13.5 PER, 64 TS%, 13 USG%, 18 AST%)
72 (NC) Luke Ridnour (11.0 PER, 52 TS%, 14 USG%, 26 AST%
72 (+1) Shelvin Mack (9.6 PER, 41 TS%, 18 USG%, 28 AST%)

I've mentioned in a SimHangOut that Cory Joseph would need to step up to fill Patty Mills shoes and he has done so adequately.

Dante Exum is doing a little bit more than letting his sim hang low (Hey Scott, you called it!).  Exum was drafted more for his potential than what he could do as a teenage rookie, and looking at the leap Dennis Schroder has made at 21, it's obviously way too early to discount him. However at present it's clear that Exum has yet to realize his potential.

61-72
72 (+1) Steve Blake (9.4 PER, 50 TS%, 12 USG%, 27 AST%)
72 (NC) Jordan Farmar (9.0 PER, 52 TS%, 17 USG%, 18 AST%)
71 (+6) Donald Sloan (13.1 PER, 48 TS%, 19 USG%, 27 AST%)
71 (-1) Shane Larkin (9.6 PER, 52 TS%, 13 USG%, 16 AST%)
71 (-3) Ray McCallum (6.5 PER, 52 TS%, 17 USG%, 10 AST%)
70 (NC) Jordan Clarkson (15.3 PER, 55 TS%, 19 USG%, 10 AST%)
70 (-2) Zach LaVine (8.8 PER, 49 TS%, 20 USG%, 20 AST%)
70 (NC) Phil Pressey (8.4 PER, 38 TS%, 13 USG%, 25 AST%)
69 (NC) Ronnie Price (8.4 PER, 39 TS%, 12 USG%, 24 AST%)
68 (-4) Jimmer Fredette (2.8 PER, 33 TS%, 15 USG%, 11 AST%)
67 (NC) Leandro Barbosa (12.2 PER, 51 TS%, 20 USG%, 12 AST%)
66 (NC) A.J. Price (17.2 PER, 54 TS%, 25 USG%, 27 AST%)

Donald Sloan did about as well as could be expected going from 3rd string to NBA starter.  A.J. Price actually outplayed him and is in the same boat Sloan was at the start of the year.  Price has been one of 2K's most underrated players dating back to his rookie season in 2010.  He's not great, but the 6-year pro (12.2 Career PER) is certainly a capable 3rd string.

Barbosa should be listed at SG, which would raise his OVR an appropriate degree (there's obviously no comparison between he and Jimmer Fredette).

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (15)
78 (NC) George Hill (DNP)
77 (NC) Patrick Mills (DNP)
76 (NC) Steve Nash (DNP)
74 (NC) Raymond Felton (DNP)
72 (NC) Nick Calathes (7.7 PER, 41 TS%, 15 USG%, 33 AST%)
72 (-3) Nate Wolters (3.9 PER, 38 TS%, 12 USG%, 8 AST%)
71 (NC) Tyler Ennis (4.9 PER, 46 TS%, 21 USG%, 28 AST%)
69 (NEW) Spencer Dinwiddie (8.5 PER, 40 TS%, 16 USG%, 31 AST%)
68 (NEW) Erick Green (18.7 PER, 65 TS%, 20 USG%, 23 AST%)
68 (NC) Ish Smith (14.0 PER, 50 TS%, 20 USG%, 14 AST%)
68 (-1) Russ Smith (-34.2 PER, 0 TS%, 25 USG%, 0 AST%)
67 (NC) Jannero Pargo (13.3 PER, 54 TS%, 27 USG%, 14 AST%)
67 (NC) Jared Cunningham (1.5 PER, 36 TS%, 23 USG%, 17 AST%)
67 (NC) Gal Mekel (0.6 PER, 15 TS%, 23 USG%, 41 AST%)
66 (NC) Toure Murry (DNP)

FREE AGENTS (20)
72 (+2) Will Bynum (DNP)
69 (NC) Sebastian Telfair (11.8 PER, 48 TS%, 22 USG%, 23 AST%)
69 (NC) Marquis Teague (DNP)
69 (NC) Diante Garrett (DNP)
69 (NC) John Lucas (DNP)
68 (NC) Nando De Colo (DNP)
67 (NEW) Will Cherry (5.9 PER, 35 TS%, 17 USG%, 16 AST%)
67 (NEW) Kalin Lucas (-0.6 PER, 0 TS%, 8 USG%, 0 AST%)
67 (NC) Nemanja Nedovic (DNP)
67 (NC) Julyan Stone (DNP)
66 (NC) Dwight Buycks (DNP)
66 (NEW) Casper Ware (DNP)
66 (NC) Peyton Siva (DNP)
65 (NEW) Jorge Gutierrez (11.1 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 27 AST%)
65 (NC) Lorenzo Brown (DNP)
65 (NC) Seth Curry (DNP)
65 (NC) Josh Akognon (DNP)
65 (NC) Sherron Collins (DNP)
65 (NC) Mike James (DNP)
60 (NC) Orien Greene (DNP)

Will Bynum's +2 signifies how underrated he was athletically prior to the global speed adjustment.

Even though great progress has been made with respect to player ratings, there's still a lot of work to be actively done.  I should have posts for the other four positions up in the coming days, and will update these lists throughout the season, so check back for updates on which players are over/underrated by 2K Sports.

Monday, December 8, 2014

NBA 2K15 Roster Analysis 12/8/14 - Southeast Division

As mentioned in the previous post, rotations are where I have them, and not 2Ks

ATLANTA HAWKS
13-6 (2nd East, 9th NBA)
2.88 SRS (3rd East, 10th NBA)

STARTERS
81/PG Jeff Teague (30)
80/SG Kyle Korver (32)
76/SF DeMarre Carroll (30)
84/PF Paul Millsap (33)
84/C Al Horford (29)
BENCH
75/PG Dennis Schroder (18)
70/C Pero Antic (17)
74/SG Shelvin Mack (16)
75/SF Thabo Sefolosha (14)
74/PF Mike Scott (14)
70/SF Kent Bazemore (7)
74/C Elton Brand (0)
68/C Mike Muscala (0)
INACTIVE
71/PF Adreian Payne (0)
68/SG John Jenkins (0)

OVERRATED
84/C Al Horford (18.9 PER, 57 TS%, 20 USG%, 6 ORB%, 18 DRB%)
Horford's rebound numbers have taken a hit but Hawks fans are happy he's just taking the court.

UNDERRATED
81/PG Jeff Teague (21.5 PER, 60 TS%, 26 USG%, 38 AST%)
Teague's breakout has the Hawks playing much better than most expected them to.

75/PG Dennis Schroder (21.0 PER, 61 TS%, 24 USG%, 30 AST%, 3.0 STL%)
Ruh roh.  After last season's rookie stinker (5.8 PER), Schroder might be the most improved player in the NBA.  He and Teague make less than 10 million combined!

POSITION ADJUSTMENTS
SHOOTING GUARD: Shelvin Mack (+2)
SMALL FORWARD: Thabo Sefolosha (NC)

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WASHINGTON WIZARDS
13-6 (2nd East, 9th NBA)
2.87 SRS (4th East, 11th NBA)

STARTERS
87/PG John Wall (35)
81/SG Bradley Beal (30)
80/SF Paul Pierce (26)
72/PF Kris Humphries (24)
82/C Marcin  Gortat (30)
BENCH
78/PF Nene (21)
71/SF Rasual Butler (21)
71/SG Otto Porter (19)
73/C Kevin Seraphin (16)
76/PG Andre Miller (12)
72/SG Garrett Temple (6)
71/PF Drew Gooden III (0)
69/PF DeJuan Blair (0)
INACTIVE
69/SG Glen Rice Jr (0)
73/SF Martell Webster (INJURED, ETA DECEMBER)

OVERRATED
81/SG Bradley Beal (12.2 PER, 52 TS%, 24 USG%)
People talk about Beal similar to the way people used to about Klay Thompson, but frankly all I see is an erratic gunner who thinks he's more than a 3pt shooting specialist (Career 40 3PT%, 42 2PT%).

UNDERRATED
72/PF Kris Humphries (15.0 PER, 49 TS%, 20 USG%, 27 DRB%)
Humphries has been underrated by 2K for about as long as I can remember.

POSITION ADJUSTMENTS
SHOOTING GUARD: Otto Porter (-1)
SMALL FORWARD: Martell Webster (-1)

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MIAMI HEAT
9-11 (7th East, 17th NBA)
-3.65 (10th East, 22nd NBA)

STARTERS
74/PG Norris Cole (18)
87/SG Dwyane Wade (28)
79/SF Luol Deng (29)
74/PF Josh McRoberts (19)
86/C Chris Bosh (35)
BENCH
78/SG Mario Chalmers (33)
73/PG Shabazz Napier (26)
64/PF Shawne Williams (23)
72/SF James Ennis (17)
73/PF Udonis Haslem (12)
76/SF Danny Granger (0)
70/C Justin Hamilton (0)
69/C Hassan Whiteside (0)
INACTIVE
64/SG Andre Dawkins (0)
76/C Chris Andersen (INJURED, ETA DECEMBER)

OVERRATED
76/SF Danny Granger (1.6 PER, 40 TS%, 15 USG%, 63 minutes)
Currently undergoing his THIRD straight season of injury plagued non-production.  Danny is done.

74/PF Josh McRoberts (8.7 PER, 58 TS%, 14 USG%, 28 TO%)
Getting badly outplayed by Shawne Williams.

UNDERRATED
72/SF Shawne Williams (14.1 PER, 63 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 TO%)
Williams rates 8 points lower at PF, a position he's spent the majority of his career (and 100% of his minutes for the Heat).  Drastic overhaul here is clearly necessary.

POSITION ADJUSTMENTS
SHOOTING GUARD: Mario Chalmers (+2)
POWER FORWARD: Shawne Williams (-8)

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ORLANDO MAGIC
9-14 (9th East, 20th NBA)
-4.68 SRS (11th East, 24th NBA)

STARTERS
75/PG Victor Oladipo (32)
75/SG Evan Fournier (32)
80/SF Tobias Harris (32)
77/PF Channing Frye (30)
82/C Nikola Vucevic (30)
BENCH
74/PG Elfrid Payton (26)
72/SG Willie Green (17)
72/SG Ben Gordon (16)
72/PF Kyle O'Quinn (13)
67/C Dewayne Dedmon (12)
72/PG Luke Ridnour (0)
74/SF Maurice Harkless (0)
71/PF Andrew Nicholson (0)
INACTIVE
68/SF Devyn Marble (0)
74/SF Aaron Gordon (INJURED)

OVERRATED
77/PF Channing Frye (8.7 PER, 56 TS%, 13 USG%, 1 ORB%)
When the starting PF has an offensive rebound rate equal to Ben Gordon's there's a problem.

UNDERRATED
78/SG Victor Oladipo (15.5 PER, 55 TS%, 24 USG%, 19 AST%, 13 DRB%)
Oladipo rates only 75 at PG (where he plays 2/3rds of his minutes).  Scoring, passing, and rebound ratings could all use an uptick.  Compare his numbers to the guards on the Hornets...

72/PF Kyle O'Quinn (28.5 PER, 66 TS%, 25 USG%, 12 ORB%, 5.9 BLK%, 130 minutes)
Sample isn't large but that's besides the point.  O'Quinn has been underrated by 2K since his rookie season (Career 17.1 PER).  Rates only 70 at center, where he's been putting up his numbers in Vucevic's absence.

67/C Dewayne Dedmon (16.4 PER, 54 TS%, 16 USG%, 19 ORB%, 25 DRB%, 5.5 BLK%)
I'm not going to sit here and tell you I'm familiar with the nuances of Dedmon's game but he certainly deserves better than 75 ORB, 73 DRB, 74 BOX, and 69 BLK.

POSITION ADJUSTMENTS
POINT GUARD: Victor Oladipo (-3)
POWER FORWARD: Aaron Gordon ()
CENTER: Kyle O'Quinn (-2)

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CHARLOTTE HORNETS
5-15 (12th East, 24th NBA)
-5.62 SRS (12th East, 25th NBA)

STARTERS
80/PG Kemba Walker (37)
81/SG Lance Stephenson (33)
76/SF Gerald Henderson (28)
75/PF Cody Zeller (24)
86/C Al Jefferson (32)
BENCH
74/PF Marvin Williams (21)
74/PG Brian Roberts (21)
76/SG Gary Neal (18)
73/C Bismack Biyombo (15)
71/SF P.J. Hairston (11)
68/PF Jason Maxiell (0)
67/PG Jannero Pargo (0)
72/PF Noah Vonleh (0)
INACTIVE
78/SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (INJURED, ETA DECEMBER)
72/SF Jeff Taylor (SUSPENDED, ETA JANUARY)

OVERRATED
81/SG Lance Stephenson (10.9 PER, 43 TS%, 20 USG%)
While his rebounds and assists might make him a fantasy all-star, Stephenson  has been one of the league's worst scoring guards.

80/PG Kemba Walker (14.9 PER, 45 TS%, 23 USG%)
That contract extension looks especially poor right now.  It doesn't seem like Kemba and Lance can co-exist.

UNDERRATED
73/C Bismack Biyombo (19.6 PER, 58 TS%, 16 USG%, 18 ORB%, 8 BLK%)
I'm not sure anyone really qualifies as "underrated" on this Hornets team but Biyombo is the closest. His minutes are blocked by Al Jefferson but production is up across the board.

POSITION ADJUSTMENTS
SMALL FORWARD: P.J. Hairston (NC)

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