Monday, November 3, 2014

NBA 2K15 Roster Analysis 11/2/14

2K released another ratings update here.

I just want to say right I'm a little on the fence about the nature of these daily updates.  It's a really cool and interesting feature that 2K has brought to the games, but I'd be very cautious of knee-jerk reactions to big games (J.R. Smith's "Prime Time" badge after an 11-point game against the Cavaliers) that will inaccurately represent how a player will perform over the course of an 82-game season.

NEW PLAYERS
Will Cherry (67/PG - Cavaliers)


It's not mentioned in 2K's report, but Cherry's addition meant that A.J. Price (66/PG) was waived.

PLAYER RATING / BADGE EDITS
Tony Wroten (76ers)
74 Overall (+2)
70 Pass Vision (+10)
70 Pass IQ (+8)
66 Pass Accuracy (+6)
74 Steal (+4)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 72 1765 12.9 .493 4.1 10.1 20.9 2.1 0.7 17.7 27.7
2014-15 3 103 18.7 .507 3.2 12.0 43.2 3.3 0.8 18.8 29.3

Wroten's assist rate (currently 6th in the league) is through the roof right now, though this is partially due to the absence of Michael Carter-Williams (who pushes Wroten to SG when they share the court).  Still, it's nice to see that the Sixers aren't dead in the water without MCW.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
77 Overall (-1)
55 Offensive Consistency (-10)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2014-15 3 102 6.1 .404 8.1 20.1 1.6 1.5 0.0 16.8 20.3

Like Wiggins and other rookies, Jabari has struggled offensively.  He'll get it together, though he should try passing the ball if his shot's not falling.

John Henson (Bucks)
75 Overall (NC)
90 Block (+6)
Season Age G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 22 63 827 18.2 .497 14.5 24.4 6.3 1.2 3.7 11.0 22.6
2013-14 23 70 1856 17.9 .543 10.2 20.8 10.9 1.2 5.1 13.7 20.3
2014-15 24 3 50 18.4 .509 11.7 9.1 3.3 3.0 11.7 7.3 12.0

Henson has quietly been an effective bench player throughout his career.   Between he and Larry Sanders, the Bucks have an elite shot blocker on the floor at all times.

Derrick Rose (Bulls)
88 Overall (NC)
98 Quickness (+1)
53 Offensive Rebound (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2010-11 ★ 81 3026 23.5 .550 3.2 9.4 38.7 1.5 1.3 13.1 32.2
2011-12 ★ 39 1375 23.0 .532 2.1 8.4 40.3 1.4 1.4 12.9 30.5
2013-14 10 311 9.7 .446 3.3 8.3 26.2 0.9 0.2 16.0 31.5
2014-15 2 47 27.5 .593 8.6 8.6 38.0 2.2 0.0 15.2 32.5

The old Derrick Rose is back, which is far more exciting than a temporary uptick in his offensive rebound rate.

Pau Gasol (Bulls)
82 Overall (NC)
84 Block (+8)

Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2011-12 65 2430 20.4 .547 8.8 21.8 17.2 0.8 2.6 12.1 22.1
2012-13 49 1655 16.7 .512 7.6 20.1 19.9 0.7 2.7 13.7 20.5
2013-14 60 1884 19.3 .522 7.0 25.9 18.7 0.7 3.5 12.4 26.4
2014-15 3 102 21.5 .562 7.9 19.7 9.0 0.0 6.4 15.3 26.8

"Pre-D'Antoni" Pau Gasol has been sighted in Chicago.  It's still early, but if Rose and Gasol continue their production/health it will spell championship (or at least an NBA Finals berth vs the Spurs).

Kirk Hinrich (Bulls)
76 Overall (NC)
BADGES
Primetime
Date Opp MP FG FGA FG% TRB AST STL TOV PTS GmSc
2014-10-29 NYK W (+24) 23:42 4 10 .400 1 0 1 2 12 4.7
2014-10-31 CLE L (-6) 34:10 7 11 .636 2 1 2 1 20 15.8
2014-11-01 MIN W (+1) 28:02 3 8 .375 2 2 1 1 11 6.2

Is EVERY role player who has a good game against the Cavs going to get Primetime this year?

Tony Snell (Bulls)
72 Overall (NC)
63 On Ball Defense (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 77 1231 8.0 .489 1.8 9.6 9.1 1.3 0.9 11.1 14.9
2014-15 3 47 5.9 .454 2.9 8.6 3.3 1.1 1.4 12.3 16.2

Snell is a better defender than this, but it's a start.  He'll need to shoot the ball better if he wants to keep his job.

Tristan Thompson (Cavaliers)
77 Overall (+1)
86 Offensive Rebound (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 82 2594 14.9 .528 11.4 21.5 4.5 0.8 1.1 10.6 17.5
2014-15 2 56 23.1 .527 28.7 2.4 6.6 0.0 3.1 0.0 16.5

Thompson's ORB rate is ridiculous right now (though his DRB rate, not so much).  He has 14 Offensive Rebounds to 1 Defensive Rebound which is an unheard of ratio.  Obviously that'll sort itself out over 82 games.  What I'd really like to see is Thompson keep up his block rate, as it dropped in each of his first 3 seasons.

Shawn Marion (Cavaliers)
76 Overall (-1)
69 Shot IQ (-6)
40 Offensive Consistency (-7)
75 Speed (-2)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 67 2010 18.0 .553 8.2 20.6 13.1 1.9 1.8 12.3 19.0
2013-14 76 2409 13.7 .537 6.4 17.4 7.6 1.9 1.3 11.4 15.7
2014-15 2 25 6.8 .286 4.6 21.8 12.4 2.2 0.0 0.0 12.4

These Cavaliers have the makings of disaster written all over them (LeBron joining a weak defensive core with poor offensive efficiency), which usually means the role players can be expected to take a hit.  Marion slipped a bit last season, and he's 36 years old in the first bench role of his career.  This surely won't be the last time his ratings drop this year.

Blake Griffin (Clippers)
89 Overall (NC)
88 Offensive Consistency (+3)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 ★ 80 2863 23.9 .583 7.7 21.2 19.2 1.6 1.4 11.9 29.0
2014-15 3 115 19.9 .532 10.0 13.9 20.5 0.4 0.8 11.9 32.7

Kinda weird timing for an O-Con boost.

DeAndre Jordan (Clippers)
82 Overall (+1)
56 Lateral Quickness (+7)
87 Box Out (+3)
85 Defensive Consistency (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 82 2870 18.2 .630 13.3 29.3 3.7 1.4 5.4 15.3 12.4
2014-15 3 99 16.0 .681 12.6 29.4 3.4 2.1 5.3 22.9 9.9

The Lateral Quickness boost brings Jordan equal to his regular Quickness rating.  LQ is effectively "defensive quickness" so he clearly shouldn't be rated poorly here.  I'd argue that both ratings should be higher than 56 but that would require convincing 2K that their Speed/Quickness scales for PF/C are broken.

Zach Randolph (Grizzlies)
85 Overall (+1)
75 Shot IQ (+5)
94 Hands (+6)
97 Offensive Rebound (+2)
93 Box Out (+3)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 79 2705 18.3 .510 11.6 23.3 12.7 1.1 0.7 12.0 26.1
2014-15 3 96 27.9 .630 14.8 30.5 4.3 2.2 0.8 13.0 25.9

Randolph has been beasting to start the year.  2K could have boosted his Defensive Rebounding along with his offensive.

Jeff Teague (Hawks)
80 Overall (+1)
82 Hands (+7)
80 Steal (+8)
80 Help Defense (+3)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 79 2542 17.1 .541 1.6 7.9 35.1 1.8 0.5 16.1 25.7
2014-15 2 65 32.2 .700 0.0 11.1 39.1 4.7 2.6 17.9 28.5

Defense is Teague's calling card, but he's also been exceptional offensively through the first two games.

Chris Bosh (Heat)
86 Overall (+2)
Shot IQ (+4)
Offensive Rebound (+6)
Defensive Rebound (+7)
Box Out (+4)
Offensive Consistency (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2009-10 ★ 70 2526 25.0 .592 9.9 25.2 11.5 0.9 2.1 10.7 28.7
2010-11 ★ 77 2795 19.4 .569 6.4 20.0 8.9 1.1 1.4 9.8 23.5
2011-12 ★ 57 2007 18.9 .551 5.8 20.5 9.1 1.3 1.8 11.2 24.2
2012-13 ★ 74 2454 20.0 .592 7.0 17.6 8.4 1.4 3.4 11.0 22.7
2013-14 ★ 79 2531 19.0 .597 5.1 20.3 5.8 1.7 2.7 10.4 22.6
2014-15 3 110 29.4 .634 9.3 30.9 18.5 1.9 0.8 12.9 28.5

CB4 has returned!  Bosh sacrificed his individual numbers during Miami's Big Three era but he always had big games anytime LeBron and Wade were out of the lineup.  Now he's re-establishing himself as a premier offensive threat, and his play earned him Eastern Conference player of the week.

Lance Stephenson (Hornets)
83 Overall (-1)
78 Shot IQ (-6)
65 Offensive Consistency (-10)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 78 2752 14.7 .564 4.1 18.1 22.1 1.0 0.2 18.0 19.4
2014-15 3 104 10.8 .371 7.0 27.7 32.4 2.0 0.0 22.5 17.8
Lance's play last season lead to him getting overrated in a number of circles, including 2K Sports.  I like all-around players who are triple-double threats, but Lance is too erratic offensively and not good enough of a shooter to effectively play off Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson.  He's averaging 8-10-7 which looks great in fantasy leagues but isn't going to translate to wins if he can't replicate last seasons 49 FG%.

Rudy Gay (Kings)
83 Overall (+1)
87 Standing Layup (+3)
84 Driving Layup (+4)
82 Shot IQ (+5)
73 Defensive Rebound (+4)
73 Box Out (+4)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 73 2531 18.3 .540 5.0 14.8 15.1 1.9 1.8 14.2 27.6
2014-15 3 109 28.4 .650 4.2 19.6 15.7 1.4 1.6 10.3 27.2

For the first time ever, Gay is actually playing like the All-Star max player he's been trying to be.  Through two days of rating edits, Gay is the only player to see an update to his non-3pt shooting ratings (Standing Layup and Driving Layup).

Evan Fournier (Magic)
73 Overall (+1)
60 Offensive Consistency (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 38 428 13.8 .597 1.6 7.4 15.5 2.2 0.2 15.9 20.4
2013-14 76 1503 10.3 .533 2.4 12.1 11.6 1.1 0.3 14.3 19.7
2014-15 3 89 15.5 .689 2.5 6.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 16.2 22.1

22-year old Fournier is playing well in the absence of Victor Oladipo.

Jerome Jordan (Nets)
66 Overall (NC)
66 Potential (NA)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2011-12 21 108 18.3 .561 14.8 14.1 6.3 0.5 4.4 5.1 16.4
2014-15 2 18 21.4 1.000 34.2 12.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 40.0 12.5

Don't let the three-year gap fool you.  Jerome Jordan can play.  At 28-years old, he's not going to get much better (the Potential adjustment was surely just correcting a typo), but he's as solid a 3rd-string as they come.

Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
89 Overall (+1)
89 Defensive Rebound (+4)
87 Box Out (+3)
76 Speed (+6)
71 Quickness (+3)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 64 1846 21.7 .559 10.5 23.5 6.1 2.2 5.1 10.3 21.8
2013-14 ★ 67 2358 26.5 .582 10.0 23.3 8.0 2.0 6.7 8.3 25.2
2014-15 2 79 38.9 .528 16.1 21.5 6.5 3.2 10.6 1.8 28.1


I guarantee you this play is where those Speed/Quickness rating boosts came from.  PF/C are just as fast as guards, this is not the 1980s/90s where half the bigs were lumbering stiffs.

Speed Average
PG: 91
SG: 82 (-9)
SF: 75 (-7)
PF: 59 (-16)

C: 53 (-6)

There is simply not a 16 point speed gap between SFs and PFs in today's NBA, and hopefully players like Davis will highlight that.

Tangent aside, give this man a higher Overall rating than Tim Duncan, please and thank you.

Alex Len (Suns)
68 Overall (+1)
73 Defensive Rebound (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 42 362 7.3 .469 12.1 18.6 1.6 0.6 3.8 22.1 14.3
2014-15 3 68 16.5 .618 9.6 21.7 6.3 0.0 6.8 6.8 9.9

The Suns placed a lot of faith in Alex Len not being a bust after a poor rookie year.  So far, he is rewarding them.

LaMarcus Aldridge (Trail Blazers)

88 Overall (NC)
84 Shot IQ (+4)
81 Defensive Rebound (-8)
90 Box Out (-4)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 ★ 69 2498 21.8 .507 7.2 25.5 13.0 1.3 1.9 7.2 29.8
2014-15 3 105 25.7 .555 6.0 14.7 11.3 1.0 3.5 8.2 30.9

Aldridge is playing well offensively though he hasn't rebounded all that well as of yet.  Truth be told he's never been a great rebounder and his Box Out rating was probably overrated entering the year (and may still be).

Wesley Matthews (Trail Blazers)
79 Overall (+1)
76 Shot IQ (+4)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 82 2780 15.7 .588 2.0 9.1 10.9 1.4 0.4 8.8 19.6
2014-15 3 105 20.0 .648 4.0 8.4 6.9 1.5 0.7 6.5 19.4

Shot IQ seems like Offensive Awareness in that it's the go-to "this player should go up in rating and this is easier than tweaking his shot ratings" attribute.

PLAYER TENDENCY EDITS
Blake Griffin Adjusted 3PT Tendencies

As I mentioned in the previous Analysis, most of 2K's tendency edits early on will be accounting for big men who are now shooting threes.

ACTIVATED
Jimmy Butler (CHI) - Returning from injury
Channing Frye (ORL) - Returning from injury
PJ Tucker (PHX) - Returning from suspension



INACTIVE
Courtney Lee (MEM) - Injured (Concussion, 1-2 weeks)


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