Tuesday, February 17, 2015

NBA 2K15 Badge Analysis: Lob City Finisher

Two weeks ago I speculated that some badges in NBA 2K15 were given out too freely.  Unfortunately, I lacked the necessary data to back my theory.  Enter NBASavant, which offers specific shot type data.

I decided to start with "Lob City Finisher", a badge that enhances alley-oop ability.  There are 66 NBA players with this badge, which seems to me like a very high number.  Alley-oops are a spectacular and otherwise RARE basketball play that only a handful of players are able to replicate on a regular basis.  Running a search on alley-oops, the results were at times surprising, but ultimately, in a word, disappointing.

Data is accurate as of 2/17/15, courtesy of NBASavant and Basketball-Reference

GOLD Lob City Finisher (26 Players)
DeAndre Jordan (LAC): 81-98 FG (73 Dunks)
Tyson Chandler (DAL): 69-85 FG (63 Dunks)
Andre Drummond (DET): 56-80 FG (48 Dunks)
Dwight Howard (HOU): 46-50 FG (40 Dunks)
Anthony Davis (NOP): 41-49 FG (34 Dunks)
Tristan Thompson (CLE): 32-39 FG (26 Dunks)
Mason Plumlee (BRK): 29-33 FG (21 Dunks)
Hassan Whiteside (MIA): 19-21 FG (17 Dunks) - 489 minutes
Kenneth Faried (DEN): 14-17 FG (10 Dunks)
**Paul George (IND): 10-10 FG (10 Dunks)** (2014 Season)
Terrence Ross (TOR): 9-12 FG (8 Dunks)
Gerald Green (PHX): 8-10 FG (5 Dunks)
K.J. McDaniels (PHI): 8-8 FG (8 Dunks)
JaVale McGee (DEN): 8-8 FG (7 Dunks) - 195 minutes
Blake Griffin (LAC): 7-9 FG (3 Dunks) - 1800 minutes
J.J. Hickson (DEN): 6-9 FG (5 Dunks)
LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): 6-9 FG (3 Dunks)
Carmelo Anthony (NYK): 6-7 FG (3 Dunks)
Andrew Wiggins (MIN): 5-6 FG (5 Dunks)
Zach LaVine (MIN): 4-4 FG (3 Dunks)
Aaron Gordon (ORL): 4-4 FG (3 Dunks)
Derrick Williams (SAC): 3-3 FG (3 Dunks)
Jeremy Evans (UTA): 1-1 FG (1 Dunk)
Eric Bledsoe (PHX): 1-1 FG (0 Dunks)
Trevor Ariza (HOU): 0-0 FG
Ronald Roberts (FA): 0-0 FG

It's easy to make a case that only a handful of these players are actually elite Alley-Oop finishers.  Nobody in their right mind is ever going to confuse Tyson Chandler with Carmelo Anthony as alley-oop finishers (yet 2K begs to differ).  Trevor Ariza hasn't even attempted an Alley this year (you can even watch him laugh off his dunking badges in a recent 2KTV episode that discussed his badges).  What is most disturbing about these badges is that they were recently "re-evaluated" and it's abundantly clear that data was not factored into those evaluations.

Blake Griffin is an interesting case, as he is one half of duo that inspired the "Lob City" moniker, and certainly not a player anyone would expect to show poorly here.  However, Blake's dunk rate has declined hard each of the past two seasons, as the development of his offensive game takes him further away from the basket.


Blake Griffin
Dunks
%FGA
AlleyDunk
%Alley
2011
214
17.6
61
28.5
2012
192
20.9
43
22.3
2013
202
19.9
52
25.7
2014
176
14.2
36
20.4
2015 (2/17)
70
8.5
3
4.2
Career
854
16.4
195
22.8

It is abundantly clear that even though Blake is still dunking at a reasonably high rate, he has all but abandoned alley-oops.  Is this an effort to keep him healthier?  Has his athletic ability declined some?  Or has he merely ceded all of his half-court attempts to DeAndre Jordan, who still leads the league by a large margin?  I think it's some combination of the three, but what is clear is that so long as Blake has abandoned the alley-oop, so should we too abandon his Gold badge until he returns to his previously bonkers production in this field.

SILVER Lob City Finisher (22 Players)
Brandan Wright (PHX): 32-32 FG (28 Dunks)
Timofey Mozgov (CLE): 22-25 FG (18 Dunks)
Ben McLemore (SAC): 13-14 FG (9 Dunks)
Kevin Durant (OKC): 9-9 FG (6 Dunks)
Thomas Robinson (POR): 8-8 FG (7 Dunks)
LeBron James (CLE): 7-8 FG (5 Dunks)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA) 5-6 FG (5 Dunks)
Victor Oladipo (ORL): 5-6 FG (4 Dunks)
Gerald Henderson (CHA): 4-5 FG (3 Dunks)
Rudy Gay (SAC): 4-4 FG (3 Dunks)
Andre Iguodala (GSW): 3-3 FG (3 Dunks)
Taj Gibson (CHI): 2-3 FG (2 Dunks)
DeMar DeRozan (TOR): 2-2 FG (2 Dunks)
Harrison Barnes (GSW): 2-2 FG (2 Dunks)
Ryan Hollins (SAC): 2-2 FG (2 Dunks)
John Wall (WAS): 2-2 FG (1 Dunk)
Josh Smith (HOU): 1-1 FG (1 Dunk)
Jerami Grant (PHI): 1-1 FG (1 Dunk)
Corey Brewer (HOU): 1-1 FG (0 Dunks)
Russell Westbrook (OKC): 1-1 FG (0 Dunks)
Nate Robinson (FA): 0-0 FG
James Michael McAdoo (GSW): 0-0 FG

Even fewer players here are prolific alley-oop finishers.  LeBron James is 30-years old now and his alley-oop rate has declined quite a bit (30 alley dunks last year).  Most of these players won't even get to 5 Alley Dunks by the end of the season.



Looking at how Westbrook gets his dunks they are all blowing by his man and rising up over the defense - an impressive feat for an NBA point guard.  We don't need to sugar coat his ability anymore than that.  Westbrook has 12 alley-dunks in the last 5 years - that's 2.4 per season, and certainly not worthy of a badge that allows him to get two per game.

And no, I don't give a damn what he did in a no-defense All-Star game.

BRONZE Lob City Finisher (18 Players)
Nerlens Noel (PHI): 15-21 FG (9 Dunks)
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): 13-14 FG (6 Dunks)
Miles Plumlee (PHX): 11-13 FG (10 Dunks)
Jeff Green (MEM): 9-12 FG (9 Dunks)
Alex Len (PHX): 8-9 FG (7 Dunks)
Bismack Biyombo (CHA): 7-7 FG (7 Dunks)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): 6-7 FG (6 Dunks)
Ed Davis (LAL): 6-7 FG (5 Dunks)
Wesley Matthews (POR): 3-4 FG (0 Dunks)
Robin Lopez (POR): 3-3 FG (1 Dunk)
Mike Scott (ATL): 2-4 FG (1 Dunk)
Maurice Harkless (ORL): 2-3 FG (2 Dunks)
Cleanthony Early (NYK): 1-2 FG (1 Dunk)
Nene (WAS): 1-1 FG (0 Dunks)
Evan Turner (BOS): 1-1 FG (0 Dunks)
Cody Zeller (CHA): 0-1 FG
Anthony Bennett (MIN): 0-0 FG
Julius Randle (LAL): 0-0 FG

The top eight have 59 dunks between them. The bottom ten have 5 dunks.  I don't know what kind of research went into these evaluations but it doesn't cut the mustard.

NONE (Min 5 FGM)
Andrew Bogut (GSW): 21-30 FG (17 Dunks)
Rudy Gobert (UTA): 19-22 FG (17 Dunks)
Chris Andersen (MIA): 18-21 FG (13 Dunks)
Al Horford (ATL): 18-20 FG (9 Dunks)
Jimmy Butler (CHI): 13-18 FG (5 Dunks)
Marcin Gortat (WAS): 12-14 FG (6 Dunks)
Amir Johnson (TOR): 10-12 FG (5 Dunks)
John Henson (MIL): 8-10 FG (8 Dunks)
Samuel Dalembert (FA): 8-9 FG (5 Dunks)
Nikola Vucevic (ORL): 8-9 FG (3 Dunks)
Kevin Love (CLE): 8-9 FG (3 Dunks)
Andre Roberson (OKC): 8-8 FG (7 Dunks)
Brook Lopez (BRK): 6-8 FG (2 Dunks)
Tim Duncan (SAS): 6-6 FG (0 Dunks)
Jerryd Bayless (MIL): 6-6 FG (5 Dunks)
DeWayne Dedmon (ORL): 6-6 FG (5 Dunks)
Thaddeus Young (MIN): 5-8 FG (1 Dunk)
Meyers Leonard (POR): 5-7 FG (3 Dunks)
Otto Porter (WAS): 5-6 FG (5 Dunks)
Pau Gasol (CHI): 5-5 FG (3 Dunks)
DeMarcus Cousins (SAS): 5-5 FG (0 Dunks)

Most of these players are without a doubt better than the Silver/Bronze players (though there is a also a greater abundance of non-dunkers like Love, Duncan, or Cousins).

Chris Andersen
Dunks
%FGA
AlleyDunk
%Alley
2011
33
27.0
6
18.1
2012
23
23.1
4
17.3
2013
37
35.0
8
21.6
2014
78
29.1
25
32.0
2015
29
25.7
13
44.8
5-Yr Total
173
29.0
56
32.3

Birdman seems like a no-brainer for this badge, especially given his performance last season.  His alley-oop rate is actually trending upward as he gets older.

Jerryd Bayless' five alley-oop dunks is actually an impressive feat...


Point Guards (2015)
Alley-Oop Dunks
Jerryd Bayless
5
Damian Lillard
3
Zach LaVine
3
Shaun Livingston
3
John Wall
1
Reggie Jackson
1
Michael Carter-Williams
1
Austin Rivers
1
Jordan Clarkson
1
Total
19

Contrary to what NBA 2K would have us believe, alley-oop dunks from guards are uncommon, with only a total of 19 recorded by Point Guards this year.

Point Guards (2014)
Alley-Oop Dunks
Shaun Livingston
6
Damian Lillard
3
Russell Westbrook
3
John Wall
2
Nate Robinson
1
Jerryd Bayless
1
Tony Wroten
1
Ray McCallum
1
Ronnie Price
1
Total
19

A grand total of 19 were recorded last season, so this season's PG production is actually slightly up (which we can probably credit to Zach LaVine).

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Now, I know what you're thinking.  I'm a kill joy.  It's just a video game, and dunks are entertaining and fun.  All of this a true.  You know what else is fun?  BASKETBALL.  Post moves, passing, and jump shots are not balanced in NBA 2K15 because dunkers continue to have an advantage when it comes to triggering dunk animations, and badges are a cause of this.

The best solution that can be provided is making adjustments to ratings and badges.  Otherwise you'll have games like this.



There were 32 dunks in this Online game I played two weeks ago. 17 for my opponent, including 13 for Blake Griffin (refer to Blake's season total for a chuckle).  That's on 5 minute quarters with one OT period, on Superstar Simulation setting. In many instances my opponent was able to trigger a ridiculous alley-oop that had no prayer of being stopped, simply due to overpowered ratings and badges.

Based on the data I've provided and my understanding of the game mechanics, these are my personal changes to the Lob City Finisher badges.

GOLD (12): DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Brandan Wright, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, Mason Plumlee, Hassan Whiteside, Chris Andersen, JaVale McGee

SILVER (11)Rudy Gobert, Nerlens Noel, Kenneth Faried, Ben McLemore, Kevin Durant, John Henson, Thomas Robinson, Bismack Biyombo, Aaron Gordon, Derrick Williams, Jeremy Evans

BRONZE (23)Al Horford, Andrew Bogut, Jonas Valanciunas, Jimmy Butler, Marcin GortatMiles Plumlee, Paul George, Jeff Green, Terrence Ross, Gerald Green, K.J. McDaniels, Andre Roberson, Alex Len, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Blake Griffin, J.J. Hickson, Andrew Wiggins, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jerryd Bayless, Victor Oladipo, Zach LaVine, Ryan Hollins

REMOVED (29)Ed Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Rudy GayGerald Henderson, Andre Iguodala, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Harrison Barnes, DeMar DeRozan, Maurice Harkless, Taj Gibson, John Wall, Josh Smith, Mike Scott, Cleanthony Early, Russell Westbrook, Nene, Evan Turner, Eric Bledsoe, Corey Brewer, Jerami Grant, Trevor ArizaNate Robinson, Cody Zeller, Anthony Bennett, Julius Randle, James Michael McAdoo, Ronald Roberts

I've slashed in half the number of Gold and Silver players, which places a premium highlight on the players who are notable in this regard.  I removed the badge from 29 players, yet I still have 45 Total players with the badge, due to a few additions.  I don't expect 2K will ever adopt my methods and take steps towards fixing the Online/MyTeam metagame, but the hope of balanced NBA 2K15 gameplay in an Online League using a custom roster is certainly within reach.

1 comment:

gustavo said...

C'mon man, Randle played 14 minutes all season, let's wait until next season, I think he deserves it. :)